A great deal of research has shown empirical support for the idea of a liberal peace, where armed conflict is deemed less likely between two states when both are democracies, have more trade or greater economic interdependence, and more shared memberships in international organization. However, optimism over the prospects of growing a liberal peace have now been tempered by concerns that democracy appears to be under threat and in decline in many countries. Added to this we see previous trends toward trade liberalization replaced by more protectionist pressures and greater emphasis on economic self-reliance, and international organizations such as the United Nations are often paralyzed with increased tension between the global powers.
Can the liberal remain relevant with these headwinds, and what are the implications for conflict?
In this talk I will evaluate this by examining the plausible specific mechanisms underlying liberal peace, their robustness to changes, and potential countervailing forces. This in turn provides a basis for evaluating different scenarios for the global outlook of conflict in the immediate and longer run.